The 10 most marginal constituencies in Scotland ahead of the election (2024)

The 2024General Election is fast approaching, with a number of dramatic results expected fromJuly 4.

All eyes will be on the most marginal seats which will decide the big picture of the result in Scotland–and which parties will win or lose.

The boundaries have changed for this election, with Scotland 's number ofconstituencies reduced from 59 to 57.

Read more: Live coverage of the 2024 general election campaign

As a result, a number ofconstituencies have been changed. This means basing how marginal a seat is on the 2019 General Election result is not necessarily accurate now.

In response, experts have projected estimates of the 2019 General Election results with these new constituencies.

Professor David Denver of Lancaster University calculated the results in Scotland on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association.

Using this data, these are the 10 most marginal seats in the UK General Election held on July 4, 2024.

1. North East Fife

An approximate map of the North East Fife constituency by UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

North East Fife is likely to be Scotland's most marginal seat in the July 4 General Election.

The fight is likely to be between the Lib Dems and Scottish National Party (SNP) in this constituency.

In 2019,Lib Dem candidate Wendy Chamberlain was elected as the MP, beatingSNP candidate Stephen Gethins by 1,316 votes.

However, had the new boundary been in place in 2019, the SNP could have won with a majority of just 728 votes (1.4 per cent). The Liberal Democrats would have come second with 39% of the vote.

Candidates for July 2024 election

Bill Bowman (Conservative),Wendy Chamberlain (Lib Dem),Jennifer Gallagher (Labour),Stefan Hoggan-Radu (SNP),Morven Ovenstone-Jones (Scottish Green Party),Matthew Wren (Reform UK)

2. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Map of the constituency of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine according to UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

Candidates for the July 2024 election

Kate Blake (Labour), Andrew Campbell Bowie (Conservative),Brandon Innes (Reform),Iris Alexandra Leask (Independent),William Stanley Raymond Linegar (Green),David Allen Neill (Independent),Glen David Reynolds (SNP),Michael John Turvey (Lib Dem)

3. Dumfries and Galloway

Map of the Dumfries and Galloway constituency according to UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

In 2019 the incumbent Conservative MPAlister Jack retained the Dumfries and Galloway seat with 22,678 votes (44.1%), a majority of 1,805. In second place wasthe SNP's Richard Arkless with 20,873 votes (40.6%).

With the new boundary changes, experts predict the Conservatives would have won here with an even smaller margin of just 843 votes.

Mr Jack, the former Secretary of State for Scotland, hasstood down at the 2024 election.

Candidates for the July 2024 election

John Cooper (Conservative),David P Griffiths (Heritage Party),Charles Anthony Keal (Reform UK),Tracey Little (SNP),Iain McDonald (Lib Dem),Laura Moodie (Green),James Wallace (Labour)

4. Mid Dunbartonshire

A constituency map of Mid Dunbartonshire via UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

Mid Dunbartonshire is a new constituency for the 2024 General Election.

It has takenover a number of wards from former constituencies: East Dunbartonshire;Cumbernauld, Kilsythand Kirkintilloch East;and Glasgow North East.

Experts forecast this new seat will be a close contest between the SNP and Lib Dems.

Candidates for the July 2024 election

Amy Callaghan(SNP)Lorna Dougall (Labour),Ray James (Alba),Alix Mathieson (Conservative),David McNabb (Reform),Susan Murray (Lib Dem),Carolynn Scrimgeour (Green)

5. Perth and Kinross-shire

Constituency map of Perth and Kinross-shire via UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

Candidates for the July 2024 election

Amanda Clark (Lib Dem)Graham Cox (Labour),Luke Graham (Conservative),Sally Hughes (Independent),Helen McDade (Reform),Pete Whishart (SNP)

6. Lothian East

Constituency map of Lothian East via UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

Previously known as East Lothian, this constituency has been renamed for the 2024 General Election.

In the 2019 election, the SNP's Kenny MacAskill gained the seat from the Labour party, with a 3,886 majority.

With the new boundary changes, it is predicted the contest will be more close between the SNP and Labour in the upcoming vote.

Mr MacAskill, who defected to the Alba party in 2021,has announced he is standing down at this election.

Candidates for the July 2024 election

Douglas Alexander (Labour),Robert Davies (Reform),Duncan Dunlop (Lib Dem),Scott Hamilton (Conservative),Lyn Jardine (SNP),George Keevan (Alba),Shona McIntosh (Green)

7. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

A constituency map of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock via UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

The Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency is one of the few whose boundaries have remained relatively unchanged for this election.

In 2019, the SNP gained this seat from the Conservative party with a majority of2,329 votes. Allan Dorans received 20,272 votes (43.5%) while the Conservative candidate Martin Dowey came second with 17,943 (38.5%).

Both candidates are returning to fight the upcoming election.

Candidates for the July 2024 election

Allan Dorans (SNP), Martin Dowey(Conservative),Paul Kennedy (Lib Dem),Andrew Russell (Reform),Elaine Stewart (Labour),Korin Matthew Vallance (Green),Corri Wilson (Alba)

8.Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey

Constituency map of Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey via UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is a new constituency which will be first contested in the 2024 General Election.

The new seat will include wards from the Highland council area and Moray. According to the data, the battleground here is between the SNP and Conservatives.

If this had been a seat in the 2019 election, it is forecast the SNP would have won the seat with a 2,906 majority and 46.1% of the vote. While the second party would have beenthe Conservatives at 40.9%.

Candidates for July 2024 election

Neil Alexander (LibDem),Draeyk van der Horn (Green),James Hynam (Labour),Graham Leadbitter (SNP),Euan Morrice (Scottish Family Party),Kathleen Robertson (Conservative),Steve Skerrett (Reform)

9. Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

Constituency map of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East via UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is another new constituency which will be first contested in the upcoming General Election.

The new seat, which has absorbed a number of wards from Aberdeenshire and Moray, made news when Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross announced he would be standing there.

Despite previously saying he would be stepping down from Westminster, Mr Ross took the place of incumbent MP David Duguid who was blocked from standing after recovering from a serious illness.

In the upcoming election, this seat is expected to be a close battle between the Conservatives and the SNP.

Candidates for the July 2024 election

Ian Bailey (Lib Dem),Andy Brown (Labour),Jo Hart (Reform),Seumus Logan (SNP),Douglas Gordon Ross (Conservative)

10. Edinburgh West

A constituency map of Edinburgh West via UK Parliament (Image: Google Maps)

Edinburgh West is set to be a fight between the Liberal Democrats and SNP in the 2024 General Election.

The constituency, which comprises areas including South Queensferry, Edinburgh Airport and Murrayfield Stadium, was held by theLib Dems' incumbent candidateChristine Jardine in the 2019 election.

Ms Jardine received 21,766 votes (39.9%) while second place went to SNP candidate Sarah Masson with 17,997 votes (33%) –a majority of 3,769 for the Lib Dems.

However, with the new boundary changes, experts forecast the seat would have been more close, with a smaller Lib Dem majority of 2,888.

Candidates for the July 2024 election

Michael Davidson (Labour),David Henry (Independent),Nick Hornig (Independent),Euan Hyslop (SNP),Otto Inglis (Reform),Christine Anne Jardine (Lib Dem),Tam Laird (Scottish Libertarian Party),James Puchowski (Green),Alastair Shields (Conservative)